The ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is gaining strength and is likely to intensify further to become the strongest in 150 years, according to the National Climate Centre (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).
Climate experts warn that this could lead to amplified risks of prolonged heat waves, heavier rainfall and stronger typhoons across Asia, while raising the likelihood of 2027 becoming the hottest year recorded.
El Niño acts as a global climate amplifier, altering the probability of extreme weather such as heat waves, droughts and torrential rain. A strong event reshapes atmospheric circulation patterns through ocean-atmosphere interactions, shifting seasonal climate probability distributions across different regions.
China has already experienced a combination of extreme heat, widespread flooding and an active typhoon season, reflecting how El Nino acts as a global climate multiplier, increases the probability of weather extremes.
China’s National Climate Centre (NCC) monitoring shows the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean met the El Niño criteria in May, with sea-surface temperatures continuing to warm through out June.
By July, the event had entered the ‘strong’ category, and the likelihood of a super El Niño developing is increasing. The event is expected to last at least until next northern spring, with a total duration close to the historical average of 10-11 months.
Dr Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at China’s National Climate Centre (NCC) said historical data show El Niño affects China differently across its onset, development, peak and decay phases. She outlined these phases as the:
Development phase. During development in summer, the western North Pacific tends to generate more typhoons that are stronger, form farther southeast and make landfall with greater intensity, bringing heavier wind and rain to southeastern and southern coastal areas, with a higher chance of northward-moving typhoons. In autumn and winter,
Peak phase. When El Niño peaks in autumn and winter, southern China typically experiences significantly above-average rainfall.
Decay phase. During this phase in spring and summer, the Yangtze River basin and areas south of the Yangtze face elevated flood risks.
According to Chen the historical evidence shows that the global warming influence of a strong El Nino typically peaks in the year after the pattern reaches maximum intensity, because the ocean’s impact on the atmosphere lags by six months to a year.
The delayed response is likely to see 2027 make new global temperature records, she added.
Separately, the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) annual ‘Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update’ indicates that global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are very likely to remain near or at record-high levels, confirming that 2027 could become the warmest year on record globally.
Sources:
Meteorological Technology International, August 3, 2026. https://www.meteorologicaltechnologyinternational.com/news/climate-measurement/intensifying-el-nino-could-become-strongest-in-150-years-chinas-weather-agency-says.html
China Daily, August 3, 2026. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202608/03/WS6a70b057a310986e2b468c29.html
