China’s CO2 emissions continued to fall in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline for the full year as a whole, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief by the Europe-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
This extends the “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for two years.
The new CREA analysis shows:
- China’s carbon intensity – that is, its fossil-fuel emissions per unit of GDP – has fallen by 12% between 2020 and 2025.
- In 2025, emissions from fossil fuels increased by an estimated 0.1%, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement.
Other key findings include:
- CO2 emissions fell year-on-year in almost all major sectors in 2025, including transport (3%), power (1.5%) and building materials (7%). The key exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions grew 12%.
- Solar power output increased by 43% year-on-year, wind by 14% and nuclear 8%, helping push down coal generation by 1.9%.
- Energy storage capacity grew by a record 75 gigawatts (GW), well ahead of the rise in peak demand of 55GW.
- This means that growth in energy storage capacity and clean-power output topped the increases in peak and total electricity demand, respectively.
Read the full analysis here: 
Sources:
- Carbon Brief, 12 February 2026.
- China Daily, 2 February 2026.
